The Third Wave (covid)

 So in my previous post on the subject, I noted that the small third waves in the various states were not large or coordinated enough to make another big bump in the graph. They have now begun to do so, but there are a couple of factors in play that make it seem perhaps more significant than it really is. 

The first one is fairly straightforward: the expected number of deaths goes up this time of year every year. To see the second one, let's look a bit more closely at the CDC mortality statistics:

(This is from the same CDC page I've been using all along.) So far I have been looking only at all-cause mortality, compared to average, since that finesses a lot of issues about whether covid was a major factor in any given death. 

But a closer look shows an interesting phenomenon I hadn't noticed before. Since April the non-covid deaths ran well above normal, contributing to both peaks, if you accept the CDC's classification. But since the September minimum (and using the same classifications), non-covid mortality dropped back into the normal range. 

As a result, while covid deaths are increasing (and that's all you will see, out of context, in the alarmist press), total all-cause mortality is still basically tracking average, seasonally increasing, rates.

And it still looks like that if nothing fundamental changes, your chance of dying next year is 1.1% instead of the normal 1%. Of course, if all goes well, you will be able to drop that back down to 1% by taking a vaccine.